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#787368 - 02/12/12 12:12 PM Finger Math: What's the Probability...
soot Offline
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Registered: 04/16/05
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Big John, a card shark, puts three cards face down on a table. One of the cards is an ace; the other two are face cards. You place a finger on one of the cards, betting that this card is the ace. The probability that you've picked the ace is clearly 1/3. Big John now secretly peeks at each card. Because there is only one ace among the three cards, at least one of the cards you didn't choose must be a face card. Big John turns over this card and shows it to you. What is the probability that your finger is now on the ace?




Edited by soot (02/12/12 10:34 PM)
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#787391 - 02/12/12 12:50 PM Re: Finger Math: What's the Probability... [Re: soot]
CanukDenis Online   content
Adept Boomer

Registered: 11/26/00
Posts: 13284
Loc: Ottawa Ontario Canada
That's a real dilly, Soot!
I've seen it before (different guise) so I'll "watch"!
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#787430 - 02/12/12 02:45 PM Re: Finger Math: What's the Probability... [Re: soot]
manxman Online   content
BAAG Specialist

Registered: 07/23/02
Posts: 8515
Loc: Markham, Ontario
For independent events, conditional probability..P(A|B)=P(A)P(B)/P(B)=P(A)=1/3 think
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#787533 - 02/12/12 10:34 PM Re: Finger Math: What's the Probability... [Re: soot]
soot Offline
Puzzled Moderator
Graduate Boomer

Registered: 04/16/05
Posts: 16198
Loc: Usually in an Alabama Tree
I like it manXman ... you are correct thumbsup

wave
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