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Meta-Statistics Question
#1019368
06/18/15 11:12 PM
06/18/15 11:12 PM
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Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 3,440
47.79N, 122.24W
BobH
OP
Addicted Boomer
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OP
Addicted Boomer
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 3,440
47.79N, 122.24W
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Here's something I saw today. It's not the typical puzzle that we do here but I got a kick out of it. I hope you like it.
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?
A) 25%
B) 50%
C) 60%
D) 25%
There was no answer posted. My reasoning is in the spoiler below. Do you agree? When all else fails I build a truth table
Correct Answer
25% 50% 60%
Choice
A 1 0 1
B 0 1 0
C 0 0 1
D 1 0 0
The odds of selecting any answer is 25%.
Therefore if 25% is the correct answer, it will be picked 50% of the time, a contradiction if 50% is the correct answer, it will be picked 25% of the time, a contradiction if 60% is the correct answer, it will be picked 25% of the time, a contradiction So, I believe there is no correct answer.
Last edited by BobH; 06/20/15 02:39 PM.
Bob
As I've grown older, I've found that my memory is not as good as I used to think it was.
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Re: Meta-Statistics Question
[Re: BobH]
#1019382
06/19/15 05:05 AM
06/19/15 05:05 AM
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Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 25,145
Marlborough USA
Kaki's Sister
Sonic Boomer
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Sonic Boomer
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 25,145
Marlborough USA
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If you choose 25% you have 2 out of 4 chases of being right? If you choose either of the others you only have a 1 in 4 chance of being right or am I wrong? I will click to see the spoiler.   Your logic makes sense to me. Thanks for sharing BobH! 
Last edited by Kaki's Sister; 06/19/15 05:07 AM.
Gerry
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Re: Meta-Statistics Question
[Re: BobH]
#1019463
06/19/15 06:44 PM
06/19/15 06:44 PM
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Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 3,440
47.79N, 122.24W
BobH
OP
Addicted Boomer
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OP
Addicted Boomer
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 3,440
47.79N, 122.24W
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I'm glad you liked it Sue.  Believe me, I went around in circles a few times myself  before I thought of using the truth table. 
Bob
As I've grown older, I've found that my memory is not as good as I used to think it was.
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